That's the conclusion of economists who have been reducing their estimates for home prices as the outlook for the economic recovery has darkened. The number of homes for sale or headed for foreclosure is so high that they think prices will be even lower by next July.

Earlier this year, analysts said they thought home prices had finally reached their low point and were ready to start rising slowly in most areas of the country. Now, they think the bottom could be nearly a year away.

Price drops of more than 10 percent are expected in the Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas areas over the next year, according to Moody's Analytics. Those areas have already been scorched by 50 percent declines in home values.

Home prices in the Valley have dipped 4 percent in the past month. Until the recent decline, the region's home prices had been inching up since spring 2009.

Based on pending sales prices, Phoenix housing analyst Mike Orr has forecast that home prices will continue to fall in August.

Many analysts expect home prices to rise for a few months because a tax credit offered to home-buyers through April increased demand. But the gains probably won't last. By this time next year, Moody's expects prices in most of the cities to have fallen.

More foreclosures are expected as Americans fall behind on mortgage payments. Foreclosures add to the supply of homes for sale, bringing down prices. On top of that, so-called short sales, which happen when lenders let homeowners sell their houses for less than what they owe on their mortgages, are rising. They can drive down the value of neighboring homes, too.

Short sales account for about 28 percent of all Phoenix home sales now, compared with 21 percent in June. In Sacramento, short sales made up about 26 percent of homes sold in June, up from about 17 percent a year earlier.

Contributing to the problem is an economy grappling with high unemployment, relatively flat pay and tightened credit, all working to limit the number of people buying homes.